According to @BullTheoryio, Bitcoin has broken its traditional 4-year halving cycle as the post-halving year 2025 closed red, the first such occurrence in 14 years, source: @BullTheoryio, Jan 1, 2026. Historical pattern described by the source indicated halving years usually closed green, so this red close represents a clear deviation from prior cycles, source: @BullTheoryio, Jan 1, 2026. Trading takeaway: cycle-based seasonality signals for BTC should be treated with caution and strategies relying on the four-year halving model may require reassessment of timing, risk, and exposure, source: @BullTheoryio, Jan 1, 2026.

According to @BullTheoryio, BTC closed Christmas Day 2025 at $87,600, a 10.6% year-over-year decline from $98,000 on Christmas 2024 (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, the data show BTC rising from $0.25 on Christmas 2010 to $87,600 in 2025, implying an approximately 134% 15-year CAGR based on those figures (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, historical Christmas-to-Christmas drawdowns included 2014 (-53%), 2018 (-73%), and 2022 (-67%), underscoring high downside volatility relevant for risk sizing and stop placement (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, major upside Christmas prints included 2013 (+5,146%), 2017 (+1,463%), 2020 (+242%), 2021 (+105%), 2023 (+160%), and 2024 (+125%), highlighting boom-bust cycles that can favor trend-following strategies during momentum regimes (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, this Christmas price history offers clear reference levels for traders tracking BTC seasonality, long-term support and resistance, and headline risk into year-end (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to the source, the segment highlights Bitcoin’s 17th whitepaper anniversary and questions whether October could close red for BTC, a setup traders are watching into the monthly close. source: x.com/i/broadcasts/1rmxPvbXymYGN Bitcoin’s whitepaper was released on 2008-10-31 by Satoshi Nakamoto, making Oct 31, 2025 the 17-year milestone for the network. source: bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf and metzdowd.com/pipermail/cryptography/2008-October/014810.html The anniversary lands in the first Q4 after the April 2024 halving that reduced the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC at block 840000, tightening new supply. source: bitcoinblockhalf.com Historical monthly return dashboards show October has often been positive for BTC in past cycles, though exceptions exist, so traders typically monitor the monthly close for confirmation. source: coinglass.com

According to the source, Bitcoin has delivered positive returns in 9 of the last 10 Octobers, highlighting a recurring Uptober seasonality that traders may use to time exposure (source: source tweet dated Sep 30, 2025). Independent datasets such as the CoinGlass Bitcoin monthly returns table document multiple historically positive Octobers, enabling cross-check of the pattern before positioning (source: CoinGlass Monthly Returns).